Tweets
Subs exit long position in $LUV from yesterdays entry. at 12.28 or better for a 1.2% gain@ 13:24 -02/17/10
subs exit long position in $JDSU at 9.45 or better for a 1.2% gain@ 12:46 -02/17/10
Subs exit long position in $MLHR for a 1% gain from yesterdays entry.@ 12:43 -02/17/10
Tweet Ticker
-
RT @alaidi: $SPX/VIX Ratio falling to 60 from 65 when this double top in ratio was shown http://bit.ly/b3SlDw . yellow squares #vix $$PX $$
3 minutes
-
$SPX/VIX Ratio falling to 60 from 65 when this double top in ratio was shown http://bit.ly/b3SlDw . yellow squares #vix $$PX $$
5 minutes
-
$SPX Aft 5 wks steady rise, minor correction overdue. All sectors ex retail topping while resilience tech & finl point to future leadship
9 minutes
-
Twitter-Ticker powered by Peter Kommt Mit. unkonventionell reisen
17 minutes
|
|
Weekly Forecast
|
|
Sunday, 01 November 2009 19:00 |
|
 This week the SPX-500 and NASDAQ Composite markets clearly broke down through the trend lines they established starting in March of this year. However, the DOW-30 did not break down through its uptrend line though it is also dropping and testing support. The reason the DOW-30 is slower to break down is most likely the belief by many investors that owning large blue chip stocks when markets are turning down is a defensive play. The truth is that if the markets are truly going down most if not all stocks eventually go down with it and the only real defensive play is being in cash or bonds. We believe the best way to do that besides keeping your money in a money market account is to be long via the ETF's - UUP for the us dollar, LQD for large Corporate bonds and TLT for US Treasuries.
We are not yet convinced that these markets are ready to go down in a big way. Yes the 8 month trend line has been broken but that does not automatically mean the market is going down. It could simply move sideways before turning back up. What the break of the uptrend does mean is that it will be more difficult to be on the right side of the markets from day to day until a new short term trend is established.
The markets including Stocks, Gold and Oil have been in an uptrend since the US Dollar started its down trend in March. The US Dollar did break up through its down trend line this week and is the cause for the markets dropping. The dollar has a lot of resistance above and although it does have room to move higher it is way to early to say it is ready to move back up towards the highs of last March when it broke down.
We are bullish on this market and will be looking for a bounce on the SPX at 1020 or 1000. We are also bullish on Gold and Oil and will be looking for a bounce to open positions in those sectors. The mid term trends are up so until the indexes start making lower highs and lower lows our bias is on the long side. We trade and make our money on the short term trends, but we always keep an eye on the mid and long term trends.
We had another winning week bringing our current winning streak to 21 consecutive weeks of positive returns. We will be starting this week holding one open short position. Our new selections this week will be both long and short until a new short term trend is established.
|
The Nasdaq Composite Index
First support is at 2040 then 2015 and 19.58. Resistance is at 2100, 2150 and 2200.
|
|
Standard and Poors SP-500 index
First support is at 1020, 990, 980 and 960. Resistance is at 1040, 1080 and 1100.
|
|
The Dow Jones Industrial Averages Index
Support is at 9650, 9400, 9000 and 92500. Resistance is at 9970, 10000 and 10130.
.
|
|
The KBW Bank Index
Support is at. 40.50 resistance is at 44.00
|
|
GOLD - via the GLD
Support is at 100.50 and 99.80 Resistance is at 103 and 104.60.
|
|
OIL (light sweet crude)
Oil broke up two weeks ago and is now testing the break out area. If the US dollar continues higher, oil could continue to drop back down to support at the uptrend line. If Oil can break away from the US Dollar and bounce on support it can move much higher. We do believe that at some point OIL and Gold will trade on their own and will stop trading inverted to the US Dollar.
|
|
The US Dollar
The US Dollar has been trying to bounce for the past few weeks failing every time until this past week. Last week we said the dollar is very over sold and a bounce will not be a surprise. Well the bounce came and the move up was big enough to break above its 8 month downtrend. The dollar does have more room to the upside so we expect a move higher before it comes back down to test the break out area.
|
|
|
|
